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  Click here to go to the first staff post in this thread.   Thread: When you win, it's because you were better - would be nice

  1. #261
    Quote Originally Posted by loveboof View Post
    The real question should be: 'Could you have avoided the coin flip?'

    If the answer is yes (and it always will be), then the match was not as clean cut as you're presenting.
    Except without the coinflip mechanic it would have been as clean cut as I'm saying - thus it's the coin flip, not your playing.

  2. #262
    Member Leartes's Avatar
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    The coin-flip (if it really is one, many occasions it is valuation/mind reading skills as well) is a mechanic. You could just as well say "if armor didn't block damage I would have won from this position". You well it does block damage, so you should account for it. Just like % shot is in the rules, you should account for it.

    Seriously, if you fear the option of an early % shot on your warrior or archer you should set up that your opponent can't reach the units. If you see a 3 exertion unit with high wp you should probably acount for the option of 4 dmg random shots - even in lategame.

    Anyway, I guess I'm talking against a wall You have proven time and again that your opinion differs. I won't change that as you won't change mine.

  3. #263
    Senior Member loveboof's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Haeso View Post
    Except without the coinflip mechanic it would have been as clean cut as I'm saying - thus it's the coin flip, not your playing.
    *sigh

    So you don't think how you played in the match determined whether you won or not? You think every move is irrelevant except the final 'winning' blow?

    If your opponent can still win, however remote the possibility, even if it comes down to one lucky move, you have not wrapped up the game yet! You have not played well enough to deserve a straight up win.

    Yeah, if his last unit wasn't a thrasher with willpower left you would have done enough. Or if you hadn't walked into that RoA you definitely would have won the game...

    This sounds ridiculous to me. You might as well be saying 'If I had played differently I would have won this match' or 'If this was chess I'd have beaten him...' - you didn't play differently and this isn't chess; so you lost that one game in a hundred!
    Last edited by loveboof; 04-11-2013 at 03:03 AM.

  4. #264
    Quote Originally Posted by loveboof View Post
    *sigh

    So you don't think how you played in the match determined whether you won or not? You think every move is irrelevant except the final 'winning' blow?
    You win or you lose, no? If you played in such a manner that if the mechanic to flip said coin did not exist, you would have won, it is the coin flip deciding the game for either team. A good albeit rare example is a thrasher with 1 str 0 armor against someone with 4 or less str and 1 willpower. If the thrasher mechanic was different, you'd have no chance of winning, with the mechanic as is you can choose to roll the dice to try and get lucky str damage.

    Just because you could have played better doesn't mean the game didn't come down to that mechanic. All other things being the same, if not for that RNG based mechanic you have a 100% chance to win. With it, less so. This isn't complicated.

    If your opponent can still win, however remote the possibility, even if it comes down to one lucky move, you have not wrapped up the game yet! You have not played well enough to deserve a straight up win.
    If your opponent can still win just because of an RNG mechanic, he can win because of the RNG mechanic, not because of his playing, if the mechanic were different he would not have that option is my entire point.


    This sounds ridiculous to me. You might as well be saying 'If I had played differently I would have won this match' or 'If this was chess I'd have beaten him...' - you didn't play differently and this isn't chess; so you lost that one game in a hundred!
    I'm saying if the game were different, yes. That's kind of... the whole point of the thread... isn't it?
    Last edited by Haeso; 04-11-2013 at 01:52 PM.

  5. #265
    Senior Member loveboof's Avatar
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    Occasionally you will lose a game which you could have won if the game mechanics were different, but on those occasions you could equally have prevented the match even getting to that point.

    Those rare matches may be lost or won on a 'coin flip', but you have put yourself in that position!

    Earlier today I lost a game in which my opponent hit three 20% shots (the last one deciding the game). It was annoying because my Varl still had 12 armour and his unit only had 2 strength - that should be a zero percent hit chance (but the lowest it goes to is 20% ?). I understand your rationale, but the truth is I should have played better!

    [It didn't help that he was a complete tool - but these things happen lol...]
    Last edited by loveboof; 04-12-2013 at 02:08 PM.

  6. #266
    Senior Member Butters's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by loveboof View Post
    hit three 10% shots (the last one deciding the game). It was annoying because my Varl still had 12 armour and his unit only had 2 strength - that should be a zero percent hit chance (but I believe the lowest it goes to is 10% ?)
    Minimum chance to hit is 20%.

  7. #267
    Developer raven2134's Avatar
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    SC/SC2, many RTS's in general have fog of war. Therein lies determinism in skill and the factor of luck/randomness. And the games remain fun, popular and competitive.

  8. #268
    Junior Member Skaer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tirean View Post
    Can I have some sources for this please?
    Plenty of source links are here.

  9. #269
    Member Leartes's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skaer View Post
    Plenty of source links are here.
    Didn't we have this on the last page and don't those sources prove a huge advantage for white ?!?

  10. #270
    Quote Originally Posted by Skaer View Post
    Plenty of source links are here.
    So you replied with a link which shows that white is at a slight advantage? Pretty sure your said studies showed white didn't have a slight advantage...

  11. #271
    Junior Member Skaer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Leartes View Post
    There is more recent stuff, but it is boring imo.
    This clearly indicates that we need another RNG-driven game instead of a fun skill-driven one.

    52-56% winrate for white is huge
    2-6% "advantage" is huge? Okaaaay...

    Especially since this escalates for high skill levels.
    Now it's my turn to ask for source.

  12. #272
    Junior Member Skaer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tirean View Post
    So you replied with a link which shows that white is at a slight advantage? Pretty sure your said studies showed white didn't have a slight advantage...
    If you could link where I said that, it would be great. Otherwise it would look like you're trying to put words into my mouth.

    I, at the other hand, can link where you said white had huge advantage.

  13. #273
    CEGT chess
    engines results
    (40/120) 2009 34.7% 41.3% 24.0% 55.4%

    White has a 10% more chance of beating black in a computer vs computer match. I think thats pretty huge myself

  14. #274
    With a bit of anecdotal evidence, I played competitive chess for about 5 years in school. I would say that I won more often when playing black than white. The problem with that wiki article (don't have access to the books in the link) it doesn't give confidence intervals or more importantly variance for each player. Regardless what it does say in the wiki is that the advantage is reduced / disappears in rapid games. Factions has a dynamic akin to lightning speed chess (admittedly in chess it's normally 10 seconds but still).

  15. #275
    Junior Member Skaer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tirean View Post
    I think thats pretty huge myself
    In a precise game like chess, a "huge advantage from the start" (c) would lead to 100% winrate, not 55%.

    And you forgot to link the message where I said white has no advantage.

  16.   This is the last staff post in this thread.   #276
    Art Director Arnie's Avatar
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    Evil Laughter: LOVE your crest.

  17. #277
    Senior Member loveboof's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Butters View Post
    Minimum chance to hit is 20%.
    Ah ok thanks

    (So yeah the guy connected with three 20% hits in a row to win the game...)

  18. #278
    Member Leartes's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skaer View Post
    2-6% "advantage" is huge? Okaaaay...
    34.7% 41.3% 24.0% 55.4%
    You have to know how to read this numbers. 55.4% doesn't mean white wins 5% more games than black. It basically says white wins 5% more than average AND black loses 5% more than average for a difference of 10%. If you remove draws it gets up to a 3:2 advantage meaning out of 5 games white will win 3 in expectation. This is broken huge advantage. Any non-historic game with such a bad match-up would be laughed at!
    Compare that to the number of matches where randomness plays a role in tbs:f ...

    The advantage disapears a) on low level play or b) in blitz. Which basically means chess has serious drawbacks as the "think-through" game and does better by introducing intuition and randomness through playerbehaviour.

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